1 in 25 gay men here may have HIVI must say I was totally appalled when I read the headlines. This was horrendously high! Does this mean that at least 2 of my gay friends are HIV+? Was it really true? Then I read further...
ABOUT one in 25 gay men in Singapore is HIV-positive, said Dr Balaji Sadasivan yesterday. Researchers came to that conclusion based on the data gleaned from the anonymous human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing clinic at Kelantan Lane.
However, the Senior Minister of State for Health was quick to point out that the data used to come up with the figure is far from perfect.
Dr Balaji explained: 'There are many, many questions about this data.
'Is this representative of all gays? Or is it representative of a sample of gays? We can't answer this question unless we do more detailed studies which may invade into people's privacy.'
Action for Aids (AFA), a non-governmental organisation which runs the anonymous testing clinic, also has no idea how accurate the figure cited by Dr Balaji may be.
AFA's programme manager Abdul Hamid Hassan said the figure could be an overestimate, or an underestimate.
However, the figure here is definitely much lower than in Thailand, where one in four gay men is HIV-positive.
To prevent a similar scenario here, the Health Ministry has held many dialogues with gay activists and others in the know about gay lifestyles to discuss Aids prevention efforts among gays.
Dr Balaji added: 'At this point in time, we are very fortunate that gay activists and those interested in the issue are working with us as partners to bring HIV under control.'
The Health Ministry will work with non-governmental organisations such as the AFA to develop customised Aids education programmes for gays, setting aside about $250,000 for this effort next year.
Almost immediately, I noted that the data was gleamed from an HIV testing clinic. Alarm bells rang, but it was a split second later before I realised what was wrong. Spotted it?
If not, well, let me explain. This figure of 1 out of 25 was based on a sample population, not of the general public, but of people who have gone to the HIV testing clinic. And what do people go to a HIV testing clinic to do? Well, let me guess. To test whether they have HIV??!?!?!?
Of course the figure would be skewed grossly higher than reality. People go to the HIV testing clinic if they suspect that they are at risk of having caught the virus. Naturally, the proportion of with the virus would be higher among this at-risk group than in the general gay population. Those who practice safe and/or monogamous sex (or no sex) would be of much lower risk and less likely to turn up at the centre.
It's like trying to find out the proportion of alcoholics in the population by sampling in bars. Of course you would get a figure skewed on the high side.
What happened to basic statistical understanding? Actually, what happened to common sense?
Of course, it was quickly pointed out that data from which the figure was arrived at was questionable, as I have pointed out. But in that case, why was it used it the first place?
I do try to see things in a positive light (sometimes). Perhaps the Government wishes to shock gay men out of their complacency about AIDS. And I must admit that evidence increasingly shows that the gay population, both locally and overseas, are becoming more blase about the disease.
But the damage is tremendous. This only perpetuates the stereotype, prejudice and discrimination against gay men. Imagine the damage done to young souls struggling to come out into a community that he perceives cannot even take care of itself. Imagine the conversation he would have to face coming out to his parents.
However, my advice for all gay men in Singapore: go test. Whether or not you think you might be at risk. Go and "unskew" the data. I plan to do so.
